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Casey kenney vs dominick cruz10/19/2023 ![]() I would hope that Cruz leans on his grappling (3.05 takedowns per 15 minutes, 48% accuracy) since this is the weakest wrestler (56% takedown defense) that he has faced in some time. Vintage Cruz would run circles around a fighter of Kenney's caliber. Either those fans who pick Cruz are in the same boat as me, expecting him to be the more likely winner with major hesitancy about betting him, or there is significantly more and much quieter money backing the Kenney side. I source multiple public data sets to create these projections, and the preponderance of the picks, by a fairly wide margin, are backing the former champion.īut the line on this fight, which opened closer to a pick'em and has moved about 6% toward Kenney, doesn't reflect that same confidence. MMA fans are still picking Cruz with confidence. Ring rust, or cage rust, is real, and it's difficult to judge Cruz's current level on 10 minutes of action, coming off of a 3 1/2-year layoff against Henry Cejudo, the best bantamweight in the world. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here. Since that time, Kenney has fought nearly an entire career, going 10-2-1 while winning two belts in LFA and competing eight times under the UFC banner.īelow I preview the matchup and odds for tonight's fight. Namely, Cruz hasn't won a bout since June of 2016, which was against an aging Uriah Faber. ![]() It differs from the Benavidez fight for several reasons, however. This is similar to the Aska Askarov-Joseph Benavidez fight in the sense that it represents a significant step down in competition for a future UFC Hall of Famer who is currently lined as an underdog in a spot where, just one year ago, they both would have been significant favorites.
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